Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS64 KLUB 151952
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
252 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry and quiet weather is expected Friday with warm high
   temperatures.

 - There is a very slight chance of thunderstorms across eastern
   portions of the Rolling Plains each evening Saturday through
   Monday, but most areas will remain dry.

 - Above normal temperatures continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

The return of southwest flow aloft is ongoing across the region as
an upper level trough tracks through portions of the High Plains
this afternoon. Meanwhile at the surface temperatures are about 12
to 15 degrees cooler this afternoon compared to this time yesterday
thanks to the weak FROPA that pushed through this morning with
temperatures in the 70s to low 80s across the FA at 2 PM. Unfortunately,
we are expected to warm up as scattered high clouds begin to diminish
and northerly winds back out of the southwest as lee surface troughing
develops late this afternoon. A similar overnight is expected to
last night, as the surface trough shifts east. This will lead to
wide range of overnight lows with cooler lows across our
northwestern counties in the upper 40s to mid 50s with warmer lows
across our southeastern counties in the mid 50s to lower 60s. We
should quickly recover for Friday afternoon, with winds backing
out of the southwest once again allowing for WAA to influence warm
temperatures in the 80s to low 90s under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Southwest flow aloft will continue over our region this weekend into
early next week, downstream of an initially low amplitude upper
trough to our west on Saturday which will evolve into a broad closed
low over the Intermountain West by Monday. A series of shortwave
disturbances within the southwest flow aloft will lift northeastward
and into the central plains states throughout the weekend and early
week period. Deterministic and ensemble consensus is now in more
uniform agreement that these features will be a bit weaker than
previously indicated and will track farther to our north, with is a
generally unfavorable setup for precipitation in our forecast area
with the dryline likely to position over the far eastern Rolling
Plains each afternoon. We will instead see a continuation of above
normal temperatures and breezy to windy weather as broad lee surface
troughing persists over SE CO and NE NM combined with deep diurnal
mixing into a ~50kt H5 jet. Sunday and Monday will likely be the
windiest days of the extended forecast period, with MOS guidance
pointing to wind speeds approaching advisory criteria both
afternoons. Some ensemble solutions do still favor a more westward
position of the dryline during this period, but a dry forecast is
favored and will therefore remove mentionable PoPs for all but
far eastern portions of the Rolling Plains from Sat-Mon.

Beginning on Tuesday, the above mentioned upper troughing over the
western CONUS will quickly shift eastward, with an associated dry
cold front passing southward through our region sometime during the
Tue-Wed timeframe. Wednesday and beyond, most guidance suggests that
zonal flow aloft or low amplitude ridging will establish. This would
also favor a generally dry forecast through midweek, but there are
some hints of moisture trapping beneath the ridge which may give
some hope for precipitation chances towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light
winds will become slightly breezy at KLBB and KPVW this afternoon
but will quickly diminish around sunset.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12